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KMID : 0365220120490010048
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Korean Journal of Public Health
2012 Volume.49 No. 1 p.48 ~ p.58
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Analysis of Association between Macroeconomic Indicators and Fertility Trends
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Kim Jung-Hyun
Cho Young-Tae
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Abstract
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Objectives: This study aims to analyze the association between macroeconomic indicators and fertility trends in Korea from 1995 to 2005.
Methods: We utilize national birth record files from 1995 to 2005 obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). By enumerating event by quarters in a year, we calculate quarterly birth rate for 11 years. Rates are calculated separately by each one-year interval age groups in each year. Macroeconomic indicators (economy growth rate, consumer price index, and unemployment rate by age groups) are also quarterly calculated. Statistical analysis consisted of descriptive and Age-Period-Cohort model using HLM.
Results: 1. TFRs for first birth were affected by tempo-effect, while TFRs for second and above births were largely affected by quantum-effect. 2. Economy indices (unemployment rate and consumer price index variation rate) had a negative impact on both first and second and above births. However the economy growth rate had a positive effect on childbearing. 3. Macroeconomic indicators excercised independent influence on age, cohort and period.
Conclusion: These findings suggest that the government should intensify employment stability and support policy for reconciliation of work and family in order to encourage the childbearing.
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KEYWORD
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Macroeconomic indicators, Fertility trends, APC-model
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